Wednesday, June 13, 2012

The First Ever HCC/Dick Morris Presidential Poll and Forecast

What with the November Election being of somewhat importance to the folks, not just in Hubbard, but in neighboring communities like Tampa, Raleigh, and even San Francisco it appears that the Cafe folks have joined up with none other than Dick Morris to publish their own polling results (with a lot of help from Rasmussen).  Not only do they have polling results but they have extrapolated (that would mean they have drawn conclusions for those of you in Mt. Calm) the November presidential election results.

Let it go down in history on this very day the Hubbard City Cafe with assistance from Dick Morris and Rasmussen do here now declare MITT ROMNEY THE NEXT PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES WITH ELECTORAL VOTES TOTALING 317 (270 are needed again for those of you in Mr. Calm).  They also declare that one Barack Hussein Obama finishes in second place with a meager and probably overstated number of 222.

So here is the scoop.

In 2008 Obama received 365 electoral votes from misguided citizens.  Mitt Romney will have to carry all of the Red states carried by John McCain plus he will have to take states from Obama with a total of at last 96 electoral votes.

In Rasmussen's (the most objective and historically accurate of all pollsters) current polling for 9 swing states he reports the following:

Each swing state is shown with the latest polling showing voters that favor Romney followed by those that favor Obama.  The next two columns represent voters who want another candidate followed by undecided voters.  For example Pennsylvania (Pa.) voters favor Romney by 41% and Obama by 47% with 7% favoring another candidate and 5% undecided.

The next two columns factor in the Dick Morris projection.  Morris's studies show that 80-100% of "other candidate" and "undecided" voters will vote against the incumbent (Obama).  When this factor is applied at 80% Romney wins every one of these key swing states. Check out the numbers.

                                                                         Romney    Obama
Pa                                              41 47 7 5          51            49
Ohio                                           44 46 6 5         53            47
Iowa                                           46 47 3 4         51            49
Florida                                        46 45 6 3         53            47
Colorado                                    45 45 6 5         53            47
Virginia                                      47 47 3 3         52            48
North Carolina                            51 43 2 4         56            44
Missouri                                     49 42 6 3          56            44
Wisconsin                                    47 44 5 4         54            46

(excuse the ziging and zaging but these blog tools aren't based on Excel nor do they have tabs)

These states represent 132 electoral votes.  Not shown because we don't have a recent poll is Indiana which the Cafe feels will clearly switch to Romney in 2012 for another 11 votes for a total of 143 moving from Obama's 2008 total to Romney giving the Republican 317.

The Dick Morris factor clearly projects that any time Obama has less than 50% of the polling vote HE WILL LOSE THAT STATE.

Well, you heard it hear first. We call the election on June 13, 2012 for Mitt Romney, and IT AIN'T EVEN GOING TO BE CLOSE.  The American people are way too smart to buy that corrupt Chicago thuggery campaign stuff the second time around!!

Think about it,