Friday, February 24, 2012

Don't Let The Polls Get You Down

Polling for the 2012 Presidential race can not only be confusing but misleading. Polling as used by media outlets today can have a direct impact influencing how theelectorate votes. I would never trust an NBC poll for example. They can skew results anyway they choose simply by the demographics they use in their samples as well as the way they ask questions. Any NBC poll has only one goal: to re-elect Obama.

The most accurate polling organization historically has been Rasmussen. They were frightenly accurate with the Obama/McCain race. Even Rasmussen might be misleading with their current polling of important swing states.

In Ohio they report the following, “President Obama runs slightly ahead of Mitt Romney and dead even with Rick Santorum in Rasmussen Reports’ first Election 2012 look at the key battleground state of Ohio. A new telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state finds Obama earning 45% support to Romney’s 41%. Ten percent (10%) like some other candidate in the race, and four percent (4%) remain undecided.”

Scary, huh?  But the key numbers are those not showing a preference for either candidate. First, it is only logical the large 10% preferring another candidate do not want another Democrat. Clearly most of these will vote Republican as they prefer Santorum, Gingrich, or maybe even someone like Chris Christie. Secondly Dick Morris’ studies have shown the “undecided” will go at least 80/20 against the incumbent. Making these adjustments Romney takes a lead of at least 52% to Obama’s 48% in Ohio.

In Virginia, “The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Virginia Voters shows Obama drawing 49% support to Romney's 43%. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate in the race, while three percent (3%) are undecided.

Applying the same adjustments the race narrows to an Obama lead of no more than 51% to Romney’s 49% or a race that is within the margin of error.

Lastly in Florida, “Obama is essentially even with Santorum in the Sunshine State but leads Romney by three points. A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Florida shows Obama earning 47% support to Santorum's 46%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) remain undecided. With adjustments made Santorum leads Obama 52%-48%. Obama and Romney are too close to call and in the margin of error.

If Obama is in trouble in these swing states with the Republican Candidates pounding on each other on a daily basis just think what will happen if we can just settle on a candidate.  Above all, don't let the stupid polls get you down.  Even the unbiased polls can be misleading.

Think about November,


1 comment:

  1. Right, Jim. These polls are only good for getting my blood pressure up every night when I see them cited by Fox as having some significance. One simple fact is never stated: The Republican people polled are splitting their votes among four candidates. Obama's are all together. I think we beat this guy in a landslide. He now has a record and we have videos of serial lies told to the public.