Boehner Will Probably Crater at the Wire

Folks keep calling wanting to know Billy Roy's take on the Saturday and Sunday events regarding the debt ceiling so I gave him a call:

"Here's my take, Jim.  Most Americans and certainly the Tea Party supporters wanted to use the Debt Ceiling issue as a vehicle to create a solution to our deficit and debt issues.  A solution would consist of cutting spending by greater than $6 Trillion over the next 10 years, plus caps on spending, and the initiation of a Balanced Budget Amendment to the US Constitution.  The Amendment process would take many months and require approval by the States as well.  This solution is clearly not going to happen."

"Next, most Americans and the Tea Party supporters wanted at least a 'down payment' of expense cuts tied to raising the debt ceiling.  This would be REAL expense cuts in excess of $4 Trillion.  The is also a requirement of Wall Street for the US to maintain it's AAA debt rating.  This down payment is not going to happen."

"Next, most Americans and the Tea Party would like to see the debt ceiling raised enough to buy more time to achieve a solution or down payment.  This would be the Boehner plan consisting of about  a $1 Trillion debt ceiling raise with about the same in expense cuts.  Congress would then have to come back in about six months using the debt ceiling to attempt to force a solution or a down payment on our debt/deficit.  The President says he will veto this because he wants to get this behind him and not have to face up to the deficit until after the 2012 election.  The Dems will be forced to support Obama so the Boehner plan can not pass."

"So we are left with a plan being put together as we speak which looks like the President would get his only wish which is no limits on his spending through the 2012 election by raising the debt ceiling by more than $2.4 Trillion.  They are attaching spending cuts over 10 years that would total about $1 Trillion.  Then they will add DC gobbledygook language to a bi-partisan committee that would supposedly identify other expense cuts, and failing to do so, triggers would force some kind of action which I would not bet on at all.  My guess is the Senate will pass this bill.  Boehner will pull enough Republican votes to add to most of the Democratic votes to pass this 'bipartisan compromise' in the House.  Most, if not all, Conservative Republicans will vote against this bill.  In other words, Boehner after running a strong race looks like he will crater at the wire."

"So what do we wind up with after all of this bullshit?  We let Obama led Washington borrow another $2.4-$3.0 Trillion over the next year and a half to increase our debt to around $17-17.5 Trillion.  For that we get a promise from DC of expense cuts of $1 Trillion spread over 10 years.  This would possibly reduce our yearly deficits which are running about $1.5 Trillion per year by an average of $100 Billion a year reducing the annual deficit to $1.4 Trillion.    This is peanuts, and when you factor in the fact that the expense cuts will probably never happen, we accomplished NOTHING.  No solution, no down payment, and they don't have to do anything through the 2012 election.  Meanwhile, Obama is free to spend all of his time buying votes and campaigning for the next 16 months."

"Who are the winners and losers?  The losers are the American people and particularly our children and grandchildren.  The losers include Obama who showed himself to those few remaining supporters who are not plantation slaves of the Democratic Party that he is an incompetent blatantly political light weight.  John Boehner will come out of this process if it comes down as described above as losing the support of Conservative Republicans which would include of course the Tea Party.  After fighting effectively for months to get in a position of leverage, Boehner will compromise in the end by allowing a debt ceiling that takes DC (and Obama) off the hook until after 2012 and getting token expense cuts spread over 10 long years.  Sadly, Boehner will wind up voting with the Democrats instead of his own party.  Lastly, America will lose its reputation in the world financial markets as its rating will be lowered.  Both Parties will blame each other for the lowered rating."

"Winners?  Those who want to buy votes from the 51% of Americans who don't pay income taxes and the 70% that take more money than they pay into Washington.  They gained 16 more months to plunder our treasury.  Also winning are the news agencies who drew huge audiences to follow this miserable circus."

With the few hours left we can hope and pray that BM's call is wrong and that Boehner will not agree to anything that raises the ceiling beyond 2012 without at least $4 Trillion of expense cuts.  This probably will not happen.  We will not quit.  We will have to wait until 2012.  At that time we should throw out the leaders of the House and Senate with Obama.

Think about it.  Enough!!!

Jim

P.  S.

Did anyone notice that Republican Senators never really got involved except to make an evil compromise at the end.  Put them on your November, 2012 list.